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The 2026 Federal Bid/No-Bid Scorecard
Nine weighted factors and four hard gates, with the arithmetic shown. This is the same scoring engine our paid product runs — the weights, the thresholds and the bands are identical, not a simplified version of them.
We publish it because the scoring was never the hard part. Finding the set-aside, the size standard, the place of performance and the buried certification requirements in a 200-page solicitation is what costs you three days. The arithmetic below takes ten minutes once you have those. If you would rather not spend the three days, send us the solicitation.
The method, in full
First, the four hard gates
These are disqualifications, not heavily-weighted factors. Averaging them into a score would let a strong technical fit paper over the fact that the award cannot legally be made to you. Any one of them is a no-bid at any score.
Set-aside you do not hold
If it is an 8(a), HUBZone, SDVOSB or WOSB set-aside and you do not carry the certification, the contracting officer cannot award to you. Teaming as a subcontractor is the only route in.
Deadline already passed
Obvious, and still worth a gate — amendments move dates in both directions.
SAM registration expired
An award cannot be made to an entity that is not actively registered. Check the expiry, not the fact that you registered once.
Certification you cannot obtain in time
CMMC Level 2 or 3, a facility clearance, ISO 9001, FedRAMP. If it is required, you do not hold it, and there are fewer than 90 days, it is not happening.
Then, the nine weighted factors
Each scores 0 to 1, multiplies by its weight, and the total is expressed out of 100. Deterministic — the same inputs always produce the same number, which is what lets you re-run a decision made in March and still explain it in September.
| Factor | Weight | Scores 1.0 when |
|---|
| Set-aside eligibility | 20 | The set-aside matches a certification you hold |
| NAICS match | 15 | Exact NAICS match (0.6 for the same 4-digit group) |
| Past-performance relevance | 15 | Your past work closely matches this scope |
| Size standard fit | 10 | You are within the size standard |
| Contract value fit | 10 | At or below your largest prior contract |
| Time to respond | 10 | 30+ calendar days remain |
| Incumbent risk | 10 | No incumbent and not a recompete |
| Geographic fit | 5 | You have a location in the place of performance |
| Certification gaps | 5 | You hold every certification required |
Finally, the bands
70+
Bid
The gates are clear and the fit is real.
50–69
Bid with conditions
Usually a teaming decision, or a gap you must name in the proposal.
Under 50
No-Bid
The honest answer most of the time.
One thing the number cannot tell you
A score is only as good as the facts fed into it, and most of those facts are buried. The size standard is in the notice; the required certifications are scattered through Sections C, H and L; the real submission requirements are in Section L and the evaluation weighting is in Section M. Miss one shall and you are not out-scored, you are thrown out.
That extraction is what we sell. Send us the solicitation and you get every requirement in a filtered spreadsheet, each cited to its page, plus this score with the reasoning written out — in 48 hours, for $2,500. If it does not save you twenty hours, there is no invoice.